Quant Memo
Statistics/●●●●●

Defect rate from a skeptical Beta prior

A factory estimates the true defect probability pp of parts from a new machine. Engineers expect defects to be rare, so the prior is Beta(1,9)\text{Beta}(1, 9): centered at 0.10.1 and leaning low, like having already seen 1 defect and 9 good parts. In a batch of 30 parts, 2 are defective.

Using Bayesian updating, what is the posterior mean estimate of the defect probability pp?

Your answer

More Statistics questions