Bayesian fill rate from a Beta prior
A trading desk wants to estimate the chance that a resting limit order gets filled. Before seeing today's flow, your belief about is a distribution: centered at one-half and fairly wide, as if you had already watched 2 fills and 2 misses. Today you place 12 orders and 9 of them fill.
Using Bayesian updating, what is your new best estimate (the posterior mean) for the fill probability ?