Quant Memo
Statistics/●●●●●

Free-throw shooting rate with a Beta prior

A coach estimates the true free-throw make probability pp of a new player. Scouting reports make the coach optimistic, so the prior is Beta(3,1)\text{Beta}(3, 1): like having already seen 3 makes and 1 miss, leaning high. In a short warmup the player makes 6 of 8 attempts.

Using Bayesian updating, what is the posterior mean estimate of the make probability pp?

Your answer

More Statistics questions