Which way does the arrow point? Hospitals and death

Question

A social-media post points out that people who are in hospitals die at a much higher rate than people who stay at home, and advises avoiding hospitals because they are clearly dangerous.

Give the more plausible causal direction and explain why the post's reading is backwards.

Accepted Answer

This is reverse causation. The likelier story is being seriously ill causes hospitalization, not hospitalization causes death. People go to the hospital because they are sick or injured, and serious illness is what raises the risk of dying. So the poor health comes first and causes both the admission and the elevated death risk. The correlation between "being in a hospital" and "dying" reflects that hospitals are full of sick people, with the arrow running sickness to hospitalization, opposite to the post's claim. Why avoiding hospitals is deadly. Staying home does not make a heart attack les…

Which way does the arrow point? Hospitals and death

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