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How often is a "significant" signal actually real?

Your desk tests candidate signals at significance level α=5%\alpha = 5\%, and your test has power 90%90\% (it flags a truly real signal 90%90\% of the time). From experience, about 20%20\% of the signals you bother testing turn out to be real.

Among signals your test flags as significant, what fraction are actually real? Redo it if only 2%2\% of tested signals are real.

Your answer

This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.

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