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The precision of a plug-in survival probability

Lifetimes X1,,XnX_1, \dots, X_n are i.i.d. Exponential with rate λ\lambda, and λ^=1/Xˉ\hat\lambda = 1/\bar X is the maximum likelihood estimator. You want the survival probability past a fixed time tt, S=P(X>t)=eλtS = P(X > t) = e^{-\lambda t}, estimated by the plug-in S^=eλ^t\hat S = e^{-\hat\lambda t}.

Use the delta method to find the approximate variance of S^\hat S.

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