Correlation checklist: does coffee drinking raise GDP?

Question

A pundit points out that countries with higher coffee consumption per capita also have higher GDP per capita, and suggests that coffee culture fuels economic productivity.

Before accepting that coffee drinking causes higher GDP, list every reason the two could correlate without that being the cause.

Accepted Answer

Run the correlation-to-causation checklist for X (coffee consumption) and Y (GDP per capita). 1. Reverse causation. Richer countries can afford more coffee. Higher GDP causes higher coffee consumption, the arrow likely runs the opposite way from the pundit's claim. 2. Confounders (common causes). Development, climate, geography, and culture drive both. Wealthy temperate nations tend to have cafe cultures and strong economies for reasons unrelated to caffeine (institutions, education, industrialization). 3. Spurious common trend. Over recent decades both coffee consumption and GDP rose worldwi…

Correlation checklist: does coffee drinking raise GDP?

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