The election poll and the margin of error
Asked at Two Sigma
A poll reports a candidate at support with a margin of error of at the 95% level. A commentator says: "There's a 95% probability the candidate's true support is between 48% and 54%."
Is that correct as a frequentist statement? What would license it? Also, roughly how many respondents give a margin?
Show a hint
The true support is a fixed number on election day. And the margin of error is .
Your answer
This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.