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Resampling individual trades ignores clustering

An analyst has 10,00010{,}000 individual trades spread over 200200 days (about 5050 trades per day) and wants a confidence interval for the average PnL per trade. He bootstraps by resampling individual trades with replacement and takes the percentile interval. It is very tight. A colleague warns that trades placed on the same day are highly correlated (they share the day's market moves and the same signal state).

Explain why resampling individual trades understates the uncertainty and what resampling scheme is appropriate.

Your answer

This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.

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