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Monty Hall with four doors

A game show has four doors: one hides a car, three hide goats. You pick a door. The host, who knows where the car is, opens one of the other three doors to reveal a goat (choosing at random among goat doors if he has a choice). He then offers you the chance to switch to either of the two remaining unopened doors.

  1. What is your probability of winning if you stay?
  2. What is it if you switch to one of the two remaining doors at random?
  3. Suppose instead the host opens two goat doors, leaving one other door. What is the probability of winning by switching then?
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Your original door has the car with probability 1/4, and nothing the host does changes that. The remaining 3/4 is shared among the doors he leaves closed.

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