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Rough Bergomi Model

Real volatility paths look jagged at short time scales in a way ordinary Brownian motion can't reproduce, the rough Bergomi model replaces the usual smooth driver with a rougher one and fits the observed volatility smile far better as a result.

Prerequisites: Bergomi Forward Variance Models, The Itô Integral

Trace a coastline on a map and it looks smooth from an airplane; zoom in on the same coastline from a boat and it becomes a jagged, irregular mess of inlets and rocks, and zooming in further just reveals more jaggedness at every scale, not a smooth curve underneath. Ordinary Brownian motion, the standard driver in most volatility models, is not like a coastline, it's "rough" at only one specific, moderate degree, the same at every zoom level, but real historical volatility, when researchers actually measured it at high frequency, turned out to be rougher than that: jumpier at short horizons than standard models predict.

What "rough" means, precisely

Roughness here is measured by the Hurst exponent HH, a number between 0 and 1 that describes how a path's typical size of movement scales with the length of the time window you look at it over.

E[(logσt+hlogσt)2]h2H\mathbb{E}\big[(\log \sigma_{t+h} - \log \sigma_t)^2\big] \propto h^{2H}

In words: look at how much log-volatility typically changes over a short window of length hh, squared and averaged; that quantity scales with hh raised to the power 2H2H. Standard Brownian motion has H=0.5H = 0.5. Empirically, fitting this relationship to real high-frequency realized volatility data across many assets consistently finds HH around 0.1, far below 0.5, meaning volatility's short-term changes are larger and more frequent, relative to how they scale with the observation window, than a standard Brownian driver would produce. The rough Bergomi model plugs a fractional Brownian motion with this low HH into the forward variance dynamics in place of standard Brownian motion.

Worked example 1, how scaling with HH differs numerically

Suppose the typical size of a log-vol move over a 1-day window is 0.05 (in log terms). Under standard Brownian scaling (H=0.5H = 0.5), the typical move over a 4-day window scales as 40.5=24^{0.5} = 2 times larger, so about 0.10. Under rough scaling with H=0.1H = 0.1, the same 4-day window scales as 40.11.154^{0.1} \approx 1.15 times larger, so only about 0.0575, barely bigger than the 1-day move. In words: a rough process's volatility-of-volatility barely grows as you widen the observation window, which is another way of saying almost all the "action" is concentrated at the shortest time scales, exactly the jagged-coastline picture, where zooming out doesn't smooth things out the way it would for an ordinary random walk.

Worked example 2, why this fixes a known smile-fitting problem

Classical stochastic volatility models (Heston, standard Bergomi) struggle to simultaneously fit the volatility smile's steep short-dated skew and its shallower long-dated skew with the same parameters, short-dated skew in real markets is empirically much steeper (falls off faster as T0T \to 0) than these models predict unless forced with an unrealistic vol-of-vol parameter. The rough Bergomi model, using H0.1H \approx 0.1, produces a short-dated at-the-money skew that behaves like TH1/2=T0.4T^{H - 1/2} = T^{-0.4}, which blows up much faster as maturity shrinks than the T0.5T^{-0.5}-ish behavior classical models are stuck with, matching the steep, empirically observed short-term skew shape far more naturally, without needing an unrealistically large vol-of-vol input.

standard driver (H = 0.5)
A standard Brownian path: gentle, moderate wiggles that don't get rougher no matter how far you zoom in.
rough driver (H ≈ 0.1)
A rough path: sharp, frequent reversals at every short time scale, this is the jaggedness a low Hurst exponent produces, and what real high-frequency volatility data actually shows.

What this means in practice

Rough volatility models are increasingly used on volatility trading desks specifically because they fit the whole implied volatility surface, especially the short-dated skew, with fewer, more stable parameters than classical models, and those parameters (roughly, HH, vol-of-vol, and correlation) tend to stay steadier over time, reducing recalibration noise. The tradeoff is computational: because the driver isn't a standard Markov process, pricing and simulation are more involved than in Heston or standard Bergomi.

"Rough" describes how volatility's increments behave statistically at short lags, it does not mean volatility is more unpredictable or noisier in the everyday sense, and it's easy to conflate the two. A rough process with H=0.1H = 0.1 can still be highly autocorrelated and mean-reverting over longer horizons; roughness is a statement about the fine-scale texture of the path, not about how forecastable volatility is overall.

The rough Bergomi model swaps standard Brownian motion for a rougher driver (Hurst exponent around 0.1, well below the standard 0.5) because real volatility, measured at high frequency, is empirically jaggier than classical models assume, and that jaggedness is exactly what produces the steep short-dated skew seen in real option markets.

Practice

  1. If a log-vol move over a 1-day window is typically 0.04, what is the typical move over a 9-day window under standard Brownian scaling (H=0.5H=0.5) versus rough scaling with H=0.1H=0.1?
  2. Why does a lower Hurst exponent make the short-dated at-the-money skew steeper as maturity shrinks toward zero?

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Further reading

  • Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral, Pricing Under Rough Volatility (Quantitative Finance, 2016)
  • Gatheral, Jaisson, and Rosenbaum, Volatility Is Rough (Quantitative Finance, 2018)
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