How informed flow sets the spread
Asked at Optiver, IMC
An asset's true value is either or , each equally likely. A fraction of the traders who arrive are informed (they know and always trade the profitable direction); the remaining are noise traders who buy or sell at random. You are a competitive market maker who must post a bid and an ask before seeing who arrives.
At what ask (and bid) do you break even? Show how the spread depends on .
Show a hint
A buy order is information. Set your ask equal to the expected value of the asset conditional on receiving a buy, that's the zero-profit price. Use Bayes' rule.
Your answer
This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.