Menchero's Optimised Linking
A method for chaining together single-period performance-attribution numbers into a multi-period total without letting a stray "interaction" term pile up unexplained.
Prerequisites: Brinson Attribution
Single-period performance attribution splits a portfolio's excess return over a benchmark into pieces — how much came from picking the right sectors, how much from picking the right stocks within them. That works cleanly for one period. The trouble starts when you try to chain many periods together into a total, because returns compound multiplicatively while the attribution effects were computed additively, so simply adding up each period's allocation effect and each period's selection effect across the year does not reconstruct the true total excess return; a leftover "interaction" or "linking" residual appears that has no clean story attached to it.
Menchero's optimised linking solves this by adjusting each period's individual effects with a small, mathematically derived correction factor before summing them, chosen specifically so that the corrected effects add up exactly to the true multi-period excess return with no leftover residual. The adjustment is smallest when returns are small and volatility is low, and grows as the compounding effect becomes more pronounced.
Menchero's method distributes the unexplained "linking residual" back into the allocation and selection effects using a formula that guarantees the corrected effects sum exactly to the real multi-period excess return, so a performance report never has to show an awkward, unexplained leftover line.
It has become close to an industry standard in attribution software specifically because clients find an unexplained residual line more alarming than a technical footnote about how the linking was done.
Related concepts
Further reading
- Menchero, 'An Optimized Approach to Linking Attribution Effects Over Time'