Where to add armor: the bombers that came back

Question

In wartime, engineers inspect bombers returning from missions and map the bullet holes. The damage clusters on the wings and fuselage, with very few hits on the engines. The obvious recommendation is to reinforce the areas taking the most fire, the wings.

Where should the armor actually go, and what is wrong with the first recommendation?

Accepted Answer

Reinforce the engines, not the wings. The recommendation is backwards because of survivorship bias. The sample is only the survivors. You are examining planes that made it home. Planes shot down are missing from the hangar entirely, so your data is filtered to survivors. The holes you see are hits that a plane could take and still return. Read the empty spots. Wings covered in holes are wings that absorbed damage and the plane still flew, meaning those areas are relatively safe. The near-absence of engine hits among returning planes does not mean engines rarely get hit. It means planes hit in…

Where to add armor: the bombers that came back

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