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Simpson's paradox: the sharper agent with the lower resolution rate

simpsons-paradoxconfoundingaggregation

Two support agents are compared by first-contact resolution rate (resolved on first contact / tickets), split by ticket complexity:

Simple ticketsComplex ticketsOverall
Nova96/100 (96%)450/900 (50%)546/1000 (54.6%)
Orion855/900 (95%)45/100 (45%)900/1000 (90%)

Nova resolves more simple tickets (96% vs 95%) and more complex tickets (50% vs 45%) on first contact, yet Orion's overall rate is far higher (90% vs 54.6%).

Which agent is more effective, and explain the paradox.

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