The job program only counted people who enrolled

Question

A city offers a voluntary job-training program to unemployed residents. Those who enrolled and completed it found work faster than the average unemployed person in the city, and officials call the program a success.

Why does comparing enrollees to the general unemployed overstate the program's effect, and how should it be evaluated?

Accepted Answer

Enrollees choose to enroll. People who sign up for a voluntary training program and see it through tend to be the more job-ready and motivated among the unemployed: readier to work, more organized, often with fewer barriers like health problems or caregiving duties. Those very traits help them find work faster on their own. Comparing this self-selected, motivated group to the general pool of unemployed, which includes many who would never have volunteered, overstates the program because it compares eager participants to a broader, less job-ready population. This is self-selection, also called…

The job program only counted people who enrolled

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