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The best unbiased estimate of a zero-count chance

You have independent counts X1,,XnX_1, \dots, X_n from a Poisson(λ)(\lambda) and you want the best unbiased estimate of θ=eλ\theta = e^{-\lambda}, the probability that a given minute sees zero events.

Starting from the crude estimator "was the first minute empty," build the minimum-variance unbiased estimator by conditioning on the sufficient total T=iXiT = \sum_i X_i.

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