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Are p = 0.049 and p = 0.051 really different?

Signal A has p=0.049p = 0.049 and signal B has p=0.051p = 0.051. A manager keeps A ("significant") and kills B ("not significant"), treating them as fundamentally different results.

Explain why the evidence in these two signals is almost identical, and why the sharp accept/reject split misrepresents them.

Your answer

This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.

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