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Mood forecast two days ahead

Maya's mood each day is either cheerful or grumpy, and it depends only on how she felt the day before:

  • If she is cheerful today, she is cheerful tomorrow with probability 0.70.7 (and grumpy with probability 0.30.3).
  • If she is grumpy today, she is cheerful tomorrow with probability 0.50.5 (and grumpy with probability 0.50.5).

She is cheerful on Monday.

What is the probability that she is cheerful on Wednesday, two days later?

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