You can actually beat 50% in the envelope game
Asked at Jane Street
Two envelopes hold amounts and for some unknown positive ; you know nothing about . You pick one at random and open it to see . You may keep it or switch to the other.
Blindly switching (or blindly keeping) obviously gives the larger envelope with probability exactly . But consider this strategy: before playing, draw a random threshold from a distribution that is positive everywhere on (say an exponential). After opening, switch if and keep if .
Show that this strategy gives you the larger envelope with probability strictly greater than .
Show a hint
The two amounts are . Consider where your random threshold falls relative to them: below both, above both, or between. What happens in each case?
Your answer
This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.