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Probability the fifth ball drawn is number one

A bag holds 2020 balls numbered 11 through 2020. You draw them out one at a time without replacement, in a uniformly random order.

What is the probability that the fifth ball drawn is ball number 11? What is the probability it is an even-numbered ball?

Show a hint

Forget balls versus cards. A random draw order treats every position identically. Which position you ask about should not matter.

Your answer

This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.

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