A random chord longer than the inscribed square's side
Asked at Jane Street
A chord is drawn at random in a circle of radius .
What is the probability that the chord is longer than the side of the inscribed square?
As in Bertrand's paradox, the answer depends on the sampling method, so give it under all three and note anything surprising.
Show a hint
The inscribed square has side . Use length for random endpoints and for a chord at distance ; the square's side corresponds to and .
Your answer
This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.