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A random chord longer than the inscribed square's side

Asked at Jane Street

A chord is drawn at random in a circle of radius rr.

What is the probability that the chord is longer than the side of the inscribed square?

As in Bertrand's paradox, the answer depends on the sampling method, so give it under all three and note anything surprising.

Show a hint

The inscribed square has side 2r\sqrt{2}\,r. Use length 2rsinα2r\sin\alpha for random endpoints and 2r2d22\sqrt{r^2-d^2} for a chord at distance dd; the square's side corresponds to d=r/2d = r/\sqrt2 and α=π/4\alpha = \pi/4.

Your answer

This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.

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