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Bertrand's chord versus the triangle side

Asked at Jane Street

A chord is drawn at random in a circle of radius rr.

What is the probability that the chord is longer than the side of the inscribed equilateral triangle?

This is the classic form of Bertrand's paradox. The answer depends on how the chord is drawn, so give it under the three standard interpretations and explain why they differ.

Show a hint

The inscribed equilateral triangle has side 3r\sqrt{3}\,r. A chord at perpendicular distance dd from the center has length 2r2d22\sqrt{r^2 - d^2}; a chord subtending central half-angle α\alpha has length 2rsinα2r\sin\alpha. The side length corresponds to d=r/2d = r/2 and α=π/3\alpha = \pi/3.

Your answer

This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.

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