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Beating any pattern your opponent picks

Asked at Jane Street

In Penney's game, your opponent first commits to a three-flip pattern, then you choose yours, and you flip a fair coin until one pattern appears. Suppose your opponent picks HTH.

What should you pick, what is your winning probability, and why does this always work?

Show a hint

There is a fixed recipe for the second player. And there is a clean way to compute the odds of one pattern beating another from how the patterns overlap.

Your answer

This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.

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