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Do two data packets collide?

Two data packets each grab a shared transmission line at a random instant, uniform over a 100100-unit time window, independently. Each packet occupies the line for 4040 units. If their transmission intervals overlap, they collide and both must resend.

What is the probability the two packets collide?

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Collision means the two start times differ by at most the transmission length: XY40|X - Y| \le 40 in a 100×100100 \times 100 square.

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