Your edge at American odds of +150

Question

A market quotes American odds of +150 on an outcome you believe wins 45\% of the time. Solve in your head. What is your expected profit per \1 staked? Aim: under 20 seconds.

Accepted Answer

Convert first. American +150 means you win \150 of profit per \100 staked, so per \1 staked you get back your \1 plus \1.50, a decimal payout of d = 1 + 	frac{150}{100} = 2.50. Then the expected value: EV = 0.45 	imes 2.50 - 1 = 1.125 - 1 = 0.125 \approx +12.5 	ext{ cents per dollar.} Cross-check with the edge lens: break-even probability is 1/2.50 = 0.40; you believe 0.45, a 0.05 edge, times the payout 2.50 gives 0.125. Consistent. Takeaway. Positive American odds convert to decimals by d = 1 + (	ext{odds}/100); negative odds -m convert by d = 1 + (100/m). Get to decimal first, then ever…

Your edge at American odds of +150

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