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Make a market on the number of UN member states

Interviewer: "Make me a market on the number of member states in the United Nations. I will trade either side, one contract settling at the true number."

Give a bid and ask, and explain what sets your width here versus quoting on a random coin or dice outcome.

Show a hint

This is a fact, fixed and knowable. The danger is not variance of a future draw; it is that your counterparty might know the number and you do not.

Your answer

This one is open-ended. Work it through, then check your reasoning against the full solution.

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