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The magazine cover jinx

statisticsregression-to-the-meanselectionnoise

A sports magazine puts on its cover whichever athlete has just had the most spectacular season. Fans have long noticed that the athlete featured almost always has a worse season the following year, and call it the cover jinx.

  1. Explain the jinx without any curse.
  2. Why does the same thing happen to the worst-performing fund of the year, and to the tallest parents' children?
  3. How would you test whether the jinx is more than this effect?
Show a hint

A spectacular season is partly ability and partly luck. Which part repeats?

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