Topic · Machine Learning & AI
← All topicsReinforcement Learning
49 articles · 10 checkpoints · 28 deeper reads · 11 reference notes
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Before any reinforcement-learning algorithm can touch a trading problem, someone has to decide what the state, action and reward actually are, and that framing decides more of the outcome than the algorithm does.
A reinforcement-learning agent needs to trade millions of times to learn, far more than any live market can safely provide, so it trains against a simulator, and the simulator's realism is a ceiling on everything downstream.
The standard way to write down a problem where your action changes the situation you face next. Five ingredients - states, actions, transitions, rewards and a discount - turn "what should I do?" into something a computer can actually optimise.
Offline reinforcement learning trains a policy from a fixed batch of past trades without ever letting the agent explore live, solving the safety problem of online RL by trading it for a harder statistical one.
A way to learn the value of every action in every situation purely from experience, without ever being told how the world works. Q-learning keeps a scorecard of action values and nudges each entry toward what actually happened.
A reinforcement-learning agent optimizes exactly the number you give it, not the number you meant, and in trading, those two numbers diverge in specific, predictable, expensive ways.
Learn from a single step instead of waiting for the episode to finish. TD nudges your estimate of a state's value toward the reward you just saw plus your current guess about where you landed - learning from a guess, using a guess.
The trick that makes sequential decision problems solvable - split the value of being somewhere into "what I get now" plus "the discounted value of wherever I end up next". One line of self-reference turns an infinite sum into a system you can actually solve.
A policy trained to perform beautifully in simulation can lose money the day it goes live, because it learned to exploit regularities of the simulator that the real market doesn't share.
A recipe for improving a decision-making policy by nudging up the probability of actions that turned out well, even when the environment is a black box you cannot differentiate through. It is the foundation of REINFORCE, actor-critic and PPO.
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