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Reinforcement Learning

49 articles · 10 checkpoints · 28 deeper reads · 11 reference notes

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  1. Before any reinforcement-learning algorithm can touch a trading problem, someone has to decide what the state, action and reward actually are, and that framing decides more of the outcome than the algorithm does.

  2. A reinforcement-learning agent needs to trade millions of times to learn, far more than any live market can safely provide, so it trains against a simulator, and the simulator's realism is a ceiling on everything downstream.

  3. The standard way to write down a problem where your action changes the situation you face next. Five ingredients - states, actions, transitions, rewards and a discount - turn "what should I do?" into something a computer can actually optimise.

  4. Offline reinforcement learning trains a policy from a fixed batch of past trades without ever letting the agent explore live, solving the safety problem of online RL by trading it for a harder statistical one.

  5. A way to learn the value of every action in every situation purely from experience, without ever being told how the world works. Q-learning keeps a scorecard of action values and nudges each entry toward what actually happened.

  6. A reinforcement-learning agent optimizes exactly the number you give it, not the number you meant, and in trading, those two numbers diverge in specific, predictable, expensive ways.

  7. Learn from a single step instead of waiting for the episode to finish. TD nudges your estimate of a state's value toward the reward you just saw plus your current guess about where you landed - learning from a guess, using a guess.

  8. The trick that makes sequential decision problems solvable - split the value of being somewhere into "what I get now" plus "the discounted value of wherever I end up next". One line of self-reference turns an infinite sum into a system you can actually solve.

  9. A policy trained to perform beautifully in simulation can lose money the day it goes live, because it learned to exploit regularities of the simulator that the real market doesn't share.

  10. A recipe for improving a decision-making policy by nudging up the probability of actions that turned out well, even when the environment is a black box you cannot differentiate through. It is the foundation of REINFORCE, actor-critic and PPO.

Then the rest

Reference notes11 short entries