Estimation & Fermi Puzzles

Read these first

1. 01Breaking an Estimate Into a Decomposition Tree

   A Fermi estimate isn't one guess, it's a product of several smaller guesses you're more confident about. A decomposition tree is the discipline of choosing which factors to multiply, and it's the difference between a defensible number and a shrug.

2. 02Sanity-Checking a Number Before You Say It

   The number your decomposition tree spits out is a draft, not an answer. A sanity check runs it through a handful of independent tests, bounds, benchmarks, a second route, before you say it out loud.

Then the rest

1. 03Quoting a Range Instead of a Single Number
2. 04Cross-Checking Top-Down Against Bottom-Up
3. 05Estimating a Company's Market Cap From Scratch
4. 06Estimating a Prop Firm's Annual Revenue
5. 07Estimating an Exchange's Daily Traded Volume
6. 08Estimating Total Options Notional Traded
7. 09How Errors Compound Down an Estimation Chain