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Foundational

The St Petersburg Paradox

A classic puzzle where a coin-flipping gamble has infinite expected value yet almost nobody would pay more than a small amount to play it — a puzzle that motivated the idea of diminishing marginal utility of money.

Prerequisites: Expected Value

Consider a game: flip a fair coin repeatedly until it comes up tails. If the first tails happens on flip nn, you win 2n2^n dollars. The expected payout is the sum, over every possible number of flips, of the probability of stopping there times the payout: each term contributes exactly $1 regardless of how long the game runs, and there are infinitely many possible outcomes, so the expected value of the game is infinite.

Yet almost no one would pay even $25 to play this game once, let alone an infinite amount. The paradox is that a game with literally infinite expected value has essentially no practical worth to a real player, because the huge payouts that drive the average up are also vanishingly unlikely — most games end in the first few flips for a tiny payout, and the enormous winnings that make the average infinite occur so rarely that virtually no one will ever see them in a lifetime of play.

Daniel Bernoulli's resolution was that people don't actually maximize expected monetary value — they maximize expected utility, and utility grows more slowly than money itself (diminishing marginal utility), so a diminishing-returns utility function like a logarithm turns the infinite expected payout into a small, finite, and sensible expected utility, matching what people are actually willing to pay.

The St Petersburg game has infinite expected monetary payout, but because the huge payouts are extraordinarily rare, no rational person will pay much to play — resolved by recognizing that decision-makers maximize expected utility, not expected money, and utility grows sub-linearly (diminishing marginal utility) with wealth.

Related concepts

Practice in interviews

Further reading

  • Bernoulli, Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk (1738)
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