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Sizing Correlated Positions Together

Five positions that each pass the single-name cap can still be one giant bet in disguise — when they move on the same underlying driver, they need to be sized and capped as a group, not five times over as if they were independent.

Prerequisites: Sizing A New Trade From Scratch, Concentration Caps On A Live Book

You own five regional bank stocks, each at 3% of the book — comfortably under a 5% single-name cap. On paper this looks diversified: five separate ideas, five separate stories, five separate risk budgets. In a rate shock or a regional-banking liquidity scare, all five move together, and what you actually hold is one 15% position in "regional bank stress," sized as if it were five unrelated 3% positions because nobody added them up.

The cap that catches what per-name caps miss

Per-name concentration caps are built to catch a single stock blowing up. They say nothing about a shared driver across several stocks that individually look small. The fix desks use is a cluster or theme cap: group positions by their dominant common factor — sector, geography, a shared supply-chain input, exposure to a single commodity or rate — and apply a separate, tighter limit to the sum of the group, independent of how each member scores against its own single-name cap.

The grouping is a judgment call, and it is worth erring toward grouping too aggressively rather than too loosely. Two stocks do not need to be in the same GICS sector to move together; a memory-chip maker and a construction firm can both be levered bets on the same interest-rate path even though nothing about their business description says so.

Worked example

Single-name cap is 5% of a $150m book ($7.5m). A trader holds five regional bank longs:

NameSize% of book
Bank A$4.5m3.0%
Bank B$4.5m3.0%
Bank C$3.0m2.0%
Bank D$3.0m2.0%
Bank E$3.0m2.0%
Cluster total$18.0m12.0%

Every single position clears the 5% cap comfortably. If the desk's theme cap for "regional bank / rate-sensitive credit" is 8% of book ($12m), this cluster is 50% over its real limit even though it never triggered a single-name alert. The correction is to trim the cluster as a whole — likely dropping the two lowest-conviction names entirely rather than shaving all five, since a thin trim across five correlated names barely reduces the shared exposure that actually matters.

theme cap: 8% cluster total: 12% ABCDE
Five bars, each under the single-name cap, stack past the theme cap for the shared driver behind all five. The theme cap has to be checked separately — it never trips as a single-name alert.

Building the check into the routine

This is not a one-time exercise at trade entry. Correlations between names you did not think were related can rise sharply during stress — the "everything correlates to one" effect — so the cluster check belongs in the same regular book review as the stale-position review, not just at the moment a new position is added.

Group positions by their shared driver, not their sector label, and cap the group total separately from any single-name cap. Five positions that individually clear every limit can still be one oversized bet on the thing they all secretly depend on.

Related concepts

Practice in interviews

Further reading

  • Grinold & Kahn, Active Portfolio Management (ch. 6)
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