Residual Income Valuation
Values a company as today's book value plus the present value of all future profit earned above what shareholders' capital could have earned elsewhere, rather than discounting dividends or free cash flow directly.
Prerequisites: Reading a Balance Sheet
Discounted cash flow and dividend discount models both value a company purely from its future distributions, ignoring the book value already sitting on the balance sheet. Residual income valuation starts from book value instead: it says a company's equity is worth its current book value, plus the present value of every future year's "residual income" — the accounting profit earned above and beyond what shareholders' capital could have earned at their required rate of return, i.e. net income minus a capital charge of (required return × beginning book value).
If a company earns exactly its cost of equity every year, residual income is zero every year, and the model collapses to saying the stock is worth its book value — a useful sanity check. Only earnings genuinely above the cost of capital add value beyond book, and earnings below it subtract value, which is what makes the framework attractive for valuing companies with volatile or currently negative free cash flow: book value provides a stable anchor that a pure discounted-cash-flow model lacks in the near term.
A company with $50 book value per share, $6 expected net income per share, and a 10% cost of equity has a capital charge of , so residual income is per share this year — only that $1 of "excess" profit, discounted over all future years, adds to the $50 of book value already counted.
Residual income valuation anchors on book value, already on the balance sheet, and adds only the present value of future profit earned above the cost of capital — earnings that merely match the cost of capital add nothing beyond book value itself.
Further reading
- Ohlson, 'Earnings, Book Values, and Dividends in Equity Valuation', Contemporary Accounting Research (1995)