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How a Leveraged Buyout Model Works

An LBO model tracks how a private equity firm's return is built from three moving parts — debt paydown, EBITDA growth and multiple expansion — over a five-to-seven-year hold.

Prerequisites: Structuring an LBO: Sources and Uses

A leveraged buyout is a bet that a private equity firm can buy a company mostly with borrowed money, run it for five to seven years, and sell it for enough to pay off the debt and pocket a large multiple on the small slice of cash it put in itself. Sources and uses answers how the purchase is financed on day one; this page answers what happens between the purchase and the exit — the mechanics that turn a levered entry into a return.

The return comes from exactly three places. Debt paydown: the company's cash flow retires debt every year, and every dollar of debt gone becomes a dollar of extra equity value at exit, with none of it needing the business to grow at all. EBITDA growth: a bigger EBITDA at exit means a bigger enterprise value even at the same multiple. Multiple expansion (or contraction): if the exit multiple differs from the entry multiple, that gap is pure re-rating, unrelated to operating performance — and it can just as easily work against the sponsor.

Equity value at exit=(Multipleexit×EBITDAexit)Net debtexit\text{Equity value at exit} = (\text{Multiple}_{\text{exit}} \times EBITDA_{\text{exit}}) - \text{Net debt}_{\text{exit}}

The return is then measured two ways: MOIC (multiple of invested capital), exit equity divided by entry equity, and IRR, the annualized rate that MOIC implies over the hold period.

Debt paydown is why leverage magnifies equity returns even with zero EBITDA growth: the enterprise value stays flat, but a shrinking debt slice means a growing equity slice takes the whole business's value.

entry 400 debt paydown +250 EBITDA growth +150 multiple +100 exit 900
Debt paydown alone often accounts for the largest slice of an LBO's equity gain, before growth or re-rating contribute anything.

A worked example

Entry: EBITDA of $100m, purchase at 8.0x EV/EBITDA gives EV = $800m. Financed with $500m debt and $300m equity (sources and uses). Hold for five years.

Exit: EBITDA has grown to $130m, the sponsor exits at the same 8.0x multiple, so exit EV is 130×8.0=1,040130 \times 8.0 = 1{,}040, i.e. $1,040m. Debt has been paid down from $500m to $250m using free cash flow. Exit equity is 1,040250=7901{,}040 - 250 = 790, i.e. $790m.

MOIC=790300=2.63x,IRR2.631/5121.4%\text{MOIC} = \frac{790}{300} = 2.63\text{x}, \qquad \text{IRR} \approx 2.63^{1/5} - 1 \approx 21.4\%

Of the $490m equity gain, $250m came from paying down debt and $240m came from EBITDA growth at a flat multiple — no multiple expansion needed to produce a strong return.

Sponsors modeling flat or expanding exit multiples are making an implicit market-timing bet; a downturn that compresses multiples by even one turn (8.0x to 7.0x) can wipe out most of the operating gains in the example above. Sensible LBO models always stress-test the exit multiple, not just the growth rate.

Related concepts

Practice in interviews

Further reading

  • Rosenbaum & Pearl, Investment Banking (Ch. 4)
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