Trading Futures Calendar Spreads

Buying an outright futures contract is a bet on where the price of oil, or gold, or corn is headed. Buying one expiry and selling another expiry of the same commodity is a narrower bet: not on where the price goes, but on how the shape of the curve between now and later changes. That trade is a calendar spread, and it strips out most of the market's overall direction to isolate the part of the price that comes purely from time.

What moves a calendar spread

The gap between a near and a far futures price reflects the cost of carrying the physical commodity forward, storage, insurance, financing, net of any convenience yield from holding the physical good now. A trader who thinks near-term supply is about to tighten (a refinery outage, a harvest shortfall) buys the near contract and sells the far one, betting the front will rise relative to the back, the spread narrows or even flips from contango into backwardation. A trader who thinks storage is about to get expensive or supply is about to be flooded does the opposite.

Worked example

Crude oil trades at $78.00 for the front-month contract and $79.20 for the contract six months out, a $1.20 contango. A trader believes an OPEC+ supply cut will tighten near-term supply and buys the front, sells the back, at a spread of -$1.20 (paying $1.20 to be long the spread). A month later, front-month crude has risen to $81.00 while the six-month contract has risen only to $80.60, the spread has moved from -$1.20 to +$0.40, a gain of $1.60 per barrel on the spread, achieved while both outright legs actually rose in price. On a 1,000-barrel contract that is a $1,600 gain, earned on a trade that was largely insulated from the overall 3.8% rally in outright oil prices.

What this means in practice

Because both legs move together most of the time, a calendar spread has a much smaller margin requirement and lower day-to-day volatility than an outright futures position of the same size, desks use them to express a precise view on near-term tightness or seasonal storage patterns (natural gas ahead of winter, grains around harvest) without taking on the market's full directional risk.